Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Pennsylvania 7th Congressional District: 2022 Midterm Election Survey
The following report contains the results of a telephone survey of likely voters in Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District between October 12 and 14, 2022.
Key Findings:
- As the 2022 midterm elections approach, voters in Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District are evenly divided in their preference for who should represent the district in Congress. The results of the latest Muhlenberg College/Morning Call survey find Congresswoman Susan Wild (D) locked in a statistical dead heat (47%-46%) with challenger Lisa Scheller (R).
- The survey findings indicate a significant gender divide in the 7th District, with men preferring Scheller by a 55%-37% margin, while among women Wild leads by a margin of 58%-37%.
- As with gender, there is a large gap in candidate preferences between those with and without a college degree. Among voters with a bachelor’s degree, Wild leads 54%-38%, while among voters without a degree Scheller leads 54%-41%.
- Inflation and abortion stand out as the most important issues to 7th District voters in terms of their 2022 election decision, with 34% of voters identifying inflation as the top issue and 28% selecting abortion.
- Among 7th District voters who identified inflation as their top issue in the 2022 midterms, Scheller holds a commanding 76%-18% lead over Wild. However, among voters noting abortion as their top issue, Wild maintained a lopsided 87%-11% lead over Scheller.
Methodological Statement
The following report contains the results of a telephone survey of 404 likely voters in the 7th Congressional District in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania between October 12 and 14, 2022. Respondents were interviewed in English on both landlines (118) and cell phones (286). With a randomly selected sample of respondents, the margin of error for the surveys is +/- 6% at a 95% level of confidence. Margins of error for questions with smaller sample size will be larger. In addition to sampling error, one should consider that question wording and other fielding issues can introduce error or bias into survey results. The data has been weighted to gender, age, party, race, educational attainment and the 2020 election results to reflect voter population parameters in the district. The calculation of sampling error takes into account design effects due to the weighting identified above. In order to reach a representative sample of likely voters both landlines and cell phones were called up to 3 times. The sampling frame for the study is from the registered voters' files of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, including individuals who voted in at least 2 of the last 4 general elections, or who had voted in either the 2022 primary elections or 2021 general election, or if they were a new registrant since the 2020 Presidential Election. Interviews were conducted by Communication Concepts of Easton Pennsylvania. Due to rounding, the totals provided in the frequency report may not total 100 percent. Data analysis and weighting were conducted through the use of the SPSS statistical software package Version 29.0. The survey instrument (presented in its entirety below) was designed by Dr. Christopher P. Borick, director of the Muhlenberg Institute of Public Opinion (MCIPO), in conjunction with the staff of the Morning Call. The survey was funded exclusively by the Morning Call and the MCIPO. For more detailed information on the methods employed please contact the MCIPO at 484-664-3444 or email Dr. Borick at [email protected].
SURVEY INSTRUMENT
Q1: Thank you. Which of the following categories best describes your current voting status? Are you registered as a ______? (READ LIST)
- Democrat…………………………………44%
- Republican………………………………. 44%
- Independent……………………………… 10%
- Other Party………………………………. 2%
- Not Registered to Vote in Pennsylvania ….(END SURVEY)
- Not Sure (Volunteered) …………………...(END SURVEY)
Q2: How likely are you to vote in the midterm elections this November? Are you definitely going to vote, very likely to vote, not too likely to vote or definitely not voting in the November Election?
- Definitely Going to Vote……………………..85%
- Very Likely to Vote…………………………16%
- Not Too Likely to Vote……………………… (END SURVEY)
- Definitely not Voting ……………………….. (END SURVEY)
- Not Sure (Volunteered)………..........................(END SURVEY)
Q3: Thinking about the upcoming midterm elections in November, would you say that you are very interested, somewhat interested or not interested at all in the 2022 elections?
- Very Interested…………………..…82%
- Somewhat Interested…………….16%
- Not Interested at All………………. 1%
Q4: Next, I would like for you to rate the performance of a few political officials. For each name that I read, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the way he or she is doing their job.
First, President Joe Biden?
- Approve………………………………….45%
- Disapprove ………………………………54%
- No opinion (Volunteered)………….2%
Q5: Next, Congresswoman Susan Wild?
- Approve…………………………………. 42%
- Disapprove ………………………………41%
- No opinion (Volunteered)………..17%
QUESTIONS 6-7 WERE ROTATED
Q6: Now, I would like to ask your overall impression of a few political figures. For each name I read, please tell me if your impression of them is favorable or unfavorable.
First, Susan Wild
- Favorable……………………………………43%
- Unfavorable…………………………………41%
- Neutral/Not Sure…………………………… 13%
- Haven't heard of Her………………………..3%
Q7: Lisa Scheller
- Favorable……………………………………33%
- Unfavorable…………………………………43%
- Neutral/Not Sure…………………………19%
- Haven't heard of Her……………………….6%
Q8: Now, if the 2022 Pennsylvania governor’s election was being held today and the race was between Republican Doug Mastriano and Democrat Josh Shapiro, who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED)
- Doug Mastriano (GO TO Q10)………………..36%
- Josh Shapiro (GO TO Q10)……………………52%
- Neither/Other (Volunteered) (GO TO Q10)…5%
- Not Sure (Volunteered)………………………… 7%
Q9: Are you leaning more toward voting for Doug Mastriano or Josh Shapiro? (Asked only of those who answered “Not Sure” in Q8: N =30)
- Doug Mastriano……………………………18%
- Josh Shapiro………………………………. 20%
- Not Sure (Volunteered)………………62%
GOVERNORS RACE WITH LEANERS
- MASTRIANO………………37%
- SHAPIRO………………….. 53%
- NEITHER/OTHER……….. 5%
- NOT SURE…………………. 5%
Q10: Now, if the 2022 United States Senate election was being held today and the race was between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz, who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED)
- John Fetterman (GO TO Q12)…………………..50%
- Mehmet Oz (GO TO Q12) …………………….. 42%
- Neither/Other (Volunteered) (GO TO Q12)…5%
- Not Sure (Volunteered)………………………….. 4%
Q11: Are you leaning more toward voting for John Fetterman or Mehmet Oz? (Asked only of those who answered “Not Sure” in Q 10: N = 14)
- John Fetterman. ………………………………….9%
- Mehmet Oz ……………………………………… 32%
- Not Sure (Volunteered)…………………………59%
SENATE RACE WITH LEANERS
- FETTERMAN…………………50%
- OZ………………………………43%
- NEITHER/OTHER…………… 4%
- NOT SURE……………………. 2%
Q12: Now, if the election in the 7th Congressional District was being held today and the race was between Democrat Susan Wild and Republican Lisa Scheller, who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED)
- Susan Wild…………………………………. 47%
- Lisa Scheller………………………………. 45%
- Neither/Other …………………………….. 4%
- Not Sure (Volunteered)……………………4%
Q13: Are you leaning more toward voting for Susan Wild or Lisa Scheller? (OPTIONS ROTATED) (ASKED ONLY OF THOSE THAT SAID “NOT SURE” IN Q12: N = 16)
- Susan Wild………………………………….. 0%
- Lisa Scheller………………………… ……. 31%
- Not Sure (Volunteered)…………………69%
7TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT WITH LEANERS
- WILD…………………………. 47%
- SCHELLER…………………...46%
- NEITHER/OTHER…………….4%
- NOT SURE……………………...4%
Q14: Which of the following issues do you consider to be the most important in terms of your decision in the 2022 midterm elections? (READ LIST) (ROTATE OPTIONS)
- Inflation…………………….34%
- Abortion……………………28%
- Health Care………………… 7%
- Immigration…………………7%
- Jobs……………………….. 6%
- Crime………………………. 5%
- Education………………….. 3%
- The Environment…………..3%
- Other (Volunteered)…………5%
- Not Sure (Volunteered)……..2%
Q15: Do you think abortion should be:
- Legal in all cases…………34%
- Legal in most cases………31%
- Illegal in most cases…….21%
- Illegal in all cases…………5%
- Not Sure (VOL)………….. 8%
Q16: Which of these best describes your actions in the 2020 presidential election? Did you vote for (READ LIST):
- Joe Biden……………………………………………………….48%
- Donald Trump………………………………………………….44%
- a candidate other than Biden or Trump…………………3%
- or did you not vote in the 2020 presidential election……5%
- Not Sure (VOL)………………………………………………..1%
Q17: Finally, I have a few questions about yourself. Which of the following categories best describes your racial identity? Are you (READ LIST)?
- White/Caucasian…………………………..83%
- African-American………………………… 3%
- Hispanic…………………………………… 3%
- Latino……………………………………... 2%
- Asian………………………………………. 1%
- Native American…………………………..<1%
- Mixed race………………………………….5%
- or other…………………………………….. 3%
Q18: Which of the following categories best describes your religious affiliation? Are you (READ LIST)?
- Catholic……………………………………… 24%
- Protestant……………………………………. 33%
- Jewish……………………………………….. 4%
- Muslim……………………………………….<1%
- Hindu…………………………………………<1%
- Other Religion (Including agnostic)…….28%
- or Atheist…………………………………….. 6%
- Not Sure (Volunteered)……………………… 5%
Q19: What is your highest level of education? (READ LIST)
- Less than High School……………………….. 2%
- High School Graduate……………………….. 21%
- Some College or Technical School……….28%
- College graduate (4 yr only)…………………31%
- Graduate or professional degree…………..18%
Q20: Which of the following categories best describes your family income? Is it (READ LIST)?
- Under $20,000……………………………….. 6%
- $20,000-$40,000……………………………...14%
- $40,000-$60,000……………………………...15%
- $60,000-$80,000……………………………...15%
- $80,000-$100,000…………………………….10%
- Over $100,000……………………………….. 29%
- Not Sure (Volunteered)……………………….12%
Q21: Which of the following categories does your current age fall in? Is it (READ LIST)?
- 18-34………………………………………….16%
- 35-50………………………………………….25%
- 51-64………………………………………….29%
- 65- and over…………………………………..31%
Q22: Finally, to which gender identity do you most identify? (READ LIST)
- Male…………………………………………………………49%
- Female……………………………………………………….51%
- Transgender Male…………………………………………… 0%
- Transgender Female…………………………………………<1%
- Or you do not identify as male, female or transgender……<1%
SELECTED CROSSTABS
7th Congressional District
|
|
Wild |
Scheller |
Neither/Other |
Not Sure |
|
OVERALL |
47% |
46% |
4% |
4% |
|
Democrat |
92% |
5% |
2% |
2% |
|
Republican |
8% |
86% |
3% |
3% |
|
Independent |
28% |
48% |
20% |
5% |
|
No College Degree |
41% |
54% |
3% |
3% |
|
College Degree |
54% |
38% |
5% |
3% |
|
Male |
37% |
55% |
5 % |
4% |
|
Female |
58% |
37% |
3% |
3% |
|
18-34 |
48% |
43% |
8% |
2% |
|
35-50 |
52% |
34% |
9% |
5% |
|
51-64 |
48% |
50% |
<1% |
3% |
|
65 and Over |
42% |
55% |
2% |
2% |
|
Biden Voter 2020 |
90% |
5% |
4% |
2% |
|
Trump Voter 2020 |
1% |
93% |
2% |
4% |
|
Definitely Voting |
49% |
44% |
4% |
3% |
|
Very Likely to Vote |
37% |
55% |
7% |
2% |
|
Inflation Top Issue |
18% |
76% |
2% |
4% |
|
Abortion Top issue |
87% |
11% |
3% |
0% |
