January 2022 - Keep Our Republic/Muhlenberg College Pennsylvania Electoral Process Survey
PDF: Keep Our Republic/Muhlenberg College Pennsylvania Electoral Process Survey - January 2022
KEY FINDINGS
- Over a year after the 2020 election, voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania remain deeply divided on many aspects of the last presidential election and on the future of electoral processes in the Keystone State.
- While 6 in 10 Pennsylvanians who voted in last year’s election are confident that the election was conducted in a fair way, 4 in 10 reported they are not confident in the fairness of the election, with 24% not confident at all that the election was conducted fairly.
- While divided on many issues related to electoral processes in the state, a strong majority (63%) disagree with the claim that the Pennsylvania State Legislature (the General Assembly) should be able to overturn the results of an election after the results had been certified by state and local election officials, with almost half (46%) strongly disagreeing with this potential action.
- County election officials are more trusted to provide the state with safe, secure and accurate elections than the Commonwealth’s legislative, executive and judicial institutions. About two out of three (67%) 2020 voters either “strongly” or “somewhat” trust county officials on election matters, compared with 49% trusting the legislature, 45% trusting Governor Wolf, and 57% trusting the Pennsylvania Supreme Court in the realm of election administration.
- A majority (57%) of 2020 Democratic voters view voter suppression as the biggest threat to the state having a safe, secure and accurate election in 2022, while most Republicans identified voter fraud (37%) or the use of mail ballots (31%) as the largest outstanding threats to the upcoming midterms.
- About 4 in 10 Pennsylvania voters in the 2020 election are either “very” or “somewhat” confident that there was widespread election fraud in that election, including 7 out of 10 Republicans.
- Most (56%) of Pennsylvanians who voted in 2020 believe the events at the United States Capitol building on January 6, 2021were an insurrection against the United States Government. However, about 2 out of 3 (63%) Republicans who cast ballots in 2020 disagreed that the January 6 events amounted to an insurrection against the U.S. Government.
- Republican voters in the Commonwealth indicate significantly lower levels of trust and confidence in all electoral processes and state institutions in comparison with their Democratic and independent counterparts. The lower trust extends to Republican-controlled institutions such as the state legislature and to voting processes such as electronic voting machines that were used by the majority of GOP voters in 2020.
METHODOLOGY
The following report contains the results of a telephone survey of (506) 2020 general election voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania that was conducted between December 1 and 13, 2021. Respondents were interviewed in English on both landlines (117) and cell phones (389). With a randomly selected sample of respondents, the margin of error for the surveys is +/- 5% at a 95% level of confidence. Margins of error for questions with smaller sample size will be larger. In addition to sampling error, one should consider that question wording and other fielding issues can introduce error or bias into survey results. The data has been weighted to gender, age, party registration, race, educational attainment and 2020 general election voting results to reflect voter population parameters. The calculation of sampling error considers design effects due to the weighting identified above. To reach a representative sample of registered voters both landlines and cell phones were called up to 3 times. The sampling frame for the study is from the registered voters files of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Only voters who indicated that they voted in the 2020 election were included in the sample. Due to rounding the totals provided in the frequency report may not total 100%. The survey instrument (presented in its entirety below) was designed by the staff of the Muhlenberg Institute of Public Opinion (MCIPO) in conjunction with the staff of Keep Our Republic (KOR). KOR is a national civic education 501(c)3 non-profit. The survey was funded jointly by Muhlenberg College and Keep Our Republic. For more detailed information on the methods employed, please contact the MCIPO at 484-664-3444 or 484-664-3066 or email Christopher Borick, director of the MCIPO, at [email protected].
Frequency Report
Weighted Results
N= 506
Percentages in Parenthesis are from December 2020 MCIPO Survey of 2020 PA Voters
Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding
Q1: Thank you. Which of the following categories best describes your current voting status? Are you registered as a ______? (READ LIST)
- Democrat……………………….45%
- Republican…………………….. 44%
- Independent…………………… 9%
- Other Party……………………... 2%
- Not Registered to Vote in Pennsylvania (END SURVEY)
- Not Sure (Volunteered) (END SURVEY)
Q2: Next, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as President?
- Approve………………………..36%
- Disapprove …………………….57%
- No opinion (Volunteered)………
Q3: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tom Wolf is handling his job as Governor of Pennsylvania?
- Approve……………………….37%
- Disapprove ……………………51%
- No opinion (Volunteered)…….12%
Q4: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Pennsylvania General Assembly is handling its job.
- Approve………………………22%
- Disapprove …………………...33%
- No opinion (Volunteered) …...45%
Next, we have a few questions about your level of confidence in the 2020 electoral process in Pennsylvania. For each aspect of the election process that I mention, tell me if you are very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not confident at all with the aspect mentioned. First how confident are you: (ROTATE OPTIONS)
|
|
Very Confident |
Somewhat Confident |
Not Too Confident |
Not At All Confident |
Not Sure |
|
Q5: That the final results of the election accurately reflected how Pennsylvanians voted. |
35% (49%) |
20% (8%) |
15% (6%) |
28% (34%) |
1% (3%) |
|
Q6: That elections in Pennsylvania were conducted in a fair way. |
39% (49%) |
22% (11%) |
14% (9%) |
24% (31%) |
1% (1%) |
|
Q7: That Joe Biden received the most votes in the presidential election in Pennsylvania. |
44% (52%) |
12% (7%) |
13% (9%) |
29% (30%) |
2% (3%) |
|
Q8: That there was widespread election fraud in the 2020 Presidential Election in Pennsylvania. |
29% (31%) |
13% (10%) |
16% (7%) |
38% (50%) |
4% (2%) |
Next, I have some questions regarding your level of trust with some officials and institutions in Pennsylvania regarding their role in providing the state with safe, secure and accurate elections. For each institution and official mentioned please indicate if you strongly trust, somewhat trust, somewhat distrust, or strongly distrust the institution or individual in providing the state with safe, secure and accurate elections. First: (ROTATE OPTIONS)
|
|
Strongly Trust |
Somewhat Trust |
Somewhat Distrust |
Strongly Distrust |
Not Sure |
|
Q9: The Pennsylvania Legislature |
11% |
38% |
21% |
19% |
11% |
|
Q10: Governor Wolf |
23% |
22% |
15% |
35% |
5% |
|
Q11: County Election Officials |
26% |
41% |
14% |
10% |
9% |
|
Q12: The Pennsylvania Supreme Court |
21% |
36% |
12% |
14% |
18% |
How confident are you that, across the country, votes cast in the following methods will be accurately cast and counted in the next year’s midterm congressional election? First: (ROTATE OPTIONS)
|
|
Very Confident |
Somewhat Confident |
Not Too Confident |
Not at all Confident |
Not Sure |
|
Q13: Paper Ballots |
36% |
29% |
15% |
18% |
2% |
|
Q14: Electronic Voting systems |
37% |
32% |
14% |
17% |
1% |
|
Q15: Mail ballots |
29% |
21% |
13% |
37% |
1% |
|
Q16: Internet Voting |
11% |
18% |
14% |
38% |
19% |
Q17. Which of the following do you think is the biggest threat to Pennsylvania having a safe, secure and accurate election in 2022? (ROTATE OPTIONS)
- Foreign interference in the election………………… 8%
- Voting machines malfunctioning………………….... 6%
- Voter fraud………………………………………..…24%
- The use of mail ballots ………………………….…..19%
- Suppression of individuals from voting……………..35%
- Other factor (Volunteered)………………………..… 5%
98. Not Sure……………………………………………... 4%
Next I’m going to read you a few statements. For each statement I read tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the statement: First:
|
|
Strongly Agree |
Somewhat Agree |
Somewhat Disagree |
Strongly Disagree |
Not Sure |
|
Q18: The events at the United States Capitol building on January 6, 2021 were an insurrection against the United States Government. |
39% |
17% |
14% |
25% |
5% |
|
Q19: Pennsylvania should limit the use of mail ballots in future elections. |
35% (38%) |
17% (9%) |
16% (11%) |
32% (40%) |
1% (2%) |
|
Q20: The Pennsylvania State Legislature is attempting to change election rules in the state to make elections in Pennsylvania more secure. |
15% |
36% |
17% |
15% |
16% |
|
Q21: The Pennsylvania State Legislature wants to change election laws to make it harder for some Pennsylvanians to cast votes. |
18% |
25% |
18% |
22% |
17% |
|
Q22: The Pennsylvania State Legislature should be able to overturn the results of an election after the results had been certified by state and local election officials. |
11% |
20% |
17% |
46% |
7% |
|
Q23: Not counting legitimate ballots was more of a problem in 2020 in Pennsylvania than any election fraud. |
20% (23%) |
26% (22%) |
17% (12%) |
22% (18%) |
16% (2%) |
Q24: In the 2020 election did you vote in person at a polling station, or vote by mail?
- Vote in Person…………..64%
- Vote by Mail……………..36%
Q25: Which of the following best describes your activity in the 2020 Presidential Election? Did you vote for:
- Donald Trump…………………………………49%
- Joe Biden…………………………………………50%
- Some other candidate……………………2%
Q26: Finally, I have a few questions about yourself. Which of the following categories best describes your racial identity? Are you (READ LIST)?
- White/Caucasian ………………….… 81%
- African-American ……………………. 10%
- Hispanic ………………………………. 4%
- Latino ………………………………….. 1%
- Asian……………………………………. 1%
- Native American……………………… <1%
- Mixed race ……………………………… 2%
- Other …………………………….…….. 1%
98. Not Sure (Volunteered)………………… <1%
Q27: What is your highest level of education? (READ LIST)
- Less than High School ……………… 4%
- High School Graduate …………….. 30%
- Some college or technical school ……22%
- College graduate (4 yr only)………… 29%
- Graduate or professional degree ……. 15%
Q28: Which of the following categories best describes your family income? Is it (READ LIST)?
- Under $20,000 …………………….. 9%
- $20,000-$40,000…………………… 14%
- $40,000-$60,000 ………………….. 22%
- $60,000-$80,000 ………………….. 16%
- $80,000-$100,000 ………………… 10%
- Over $100,000 ……………………. 24%
98. Not Sure (Volunteered) ………….. 5%
Q29: Which of the following categories does your current age fall in? Is it (READ LIST)?
- 18-34 …………………. 23%
- 35-50. …………………. 29%
- 51-64 …………………. 26%
- 65- and over …………….. 22%
Q30: Finally, to which gender identity do you most identify? (READ LIST)
- Female………………50%
- Transgender Male….. <1%
- Transgender Female…<1%
- Or you do not identify as male, female or transgender/Not Sure <1%
Selected Crosstabs
Next, we have a few questions about your level of confidence in the 2020 electoral process in Pennsylvania. For each aspect of the election process that I mention, tell me if you are very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident or not confident at all with the aspect mentioned.
That the final results of the election accurately reflected how Pennsylvanians voted.
|
|
Very Confident |
Somewhat Confident |
Not Too Confident |
Not Confident at All |
Not Sure |
|
Overall |
35% |
20% |
15% |
28% |
1% |
|
Democrat |
64% |
18% |
8% |
9% |
2% |
|
Republican |
7% |
21% |
21% |
50% |
1% |
|
Independent |
33% |
26% |
22% |
20% |
0% |
That elections in Pennsylvania were conducted in a fair way.
|
|
Very Confident |
Somewhat Confident |
Not Too Confident |
Not Confident at All |
Not Sure |
|
Overall |
39% |
22% |
14% |
24% |
1% |
|
Democrat |
67% |
19% |
6% |
8% |
<1% |
|
Republican |
12% |
24% |
21% |
42% |
2% |
|
Independent |
38% |
27% |
16% |
20% |
0% |
That Joe Biden received the most votes in the presidential election in Pennsylvania.
|
|
Very Confident |
Somewhat Confident |
Not Too Confident |
Not Confident at All |
Not Sure |
|
Overall |
44% |
12% |
13% |
29% |
2% |
|
Democrat |
74% |
12% |
6% |
8% |
<1% |
|
Republican |
13% |
11% |
22% |
51% |
4% |
|
Independent |
44% |
15% |
9% |
28% |
4% |
That there was widespread election fraud in the 2020 Presidential Election in Pennsylvania.
|
|
Very Confident |
Somewhat Confident |
Not Too Confident |
Not Confident at All |
Not Sure |
|
Overall |
29% |
12% |
16% |
38% |
4% |
|
Democrat |
8% |
7% |
18% |
63% |
4% |
|
Republican |
53% |
17% |
13% |
14% |
3% |
|
Independent |
27% |
13% |
22% |
33% |
4% |
______________________________________________________________________________
For each institution and official mentioned please indicate if you strongly trust, somewhat trust, somewhat distrust, or strongly distrust the institution or individual in providing the state with safe, secure and accurate elections.
The Pennsylvania Legislature
|
|
Strongly Trust |
Somewhat Trust |
Somewhat Distrust |
Strongly Distrust |
Not Sure |
|
Overall |
11% |
38% |
21% |
19% |
11% |
|
Democrat |
18% |
43% |
13% |
14% |
11% |
|
Republican |
3% |
32% |
28% |
27% |
10% |
|
Independent |
9% |
40% |
22% |
9% |
20% |
Governor Wolf
|
|
Strongly Trust |
Somewhat Trust |
Somewhat Distrust |
Strongly Distrust |
Not Sure |
|
Overall |
23% |
22% |
15% |
35% |
5% |
|
Democrat |
40% |
32% |
8% |
14% |
7% |
|
Republican |
5% |
13% |
23% |
57% |
3% |
|
Independent |
26% |
17% |
11% |
37% |
9% |
County Election Officials
|
|
Strongly Trust |
Somewhat Trust |
Somewhat Distrust |
Strongly Distrust |
Not Sure18% |
|
Overall |
26% |
41% |
14% |
10% |
9% |
|
Democrat |
38% |
42% |
7% |
5% |
9% |
|
Republican |
15% |
40% |
21% |
15% |
10% |
|
Independent |
29% |
42% |
13% |
9% |
7% |
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court
|
|
Strongly Trust |
Somewhat Trust |
Somewhat Distrust |
Strongly Distrust |
Not Sure |
|
Overall |
21% |
36% |
12% |
14% |
18% |
|
Democrat |
30% |
41% |
7% |
8% |
14% |
|
Republican |
11% |
33% |
17% |
20% |
20% |
|
Independent |
22% |
35% |
11% |
11% |
22% |
How confident are you that, across the country, votes cast in the following methods will be accurately cast and counted in the next year’s midterm congressional election?
Paper Ballots
|
|
Very Confident |
Somewhat Confident |
Not Too Confident |
Not Confident at All |
Not Sure |
|
Overall |
36% |
29% |
15% |
18% |
2% |
|
Democrat |
56% |
29% |
6% |
8% |
1% |
|
Republican |
16% |
29% |
23% |
29% |
3% |
|
Independent |
31% |
36% |
18% |
16% |
0% |
Electronic Voting Systems
|
|
Very Confident |
Somewhat Confident |
Not Too Confident |
Not Confident at All |
Not Sure |
|
Overall |
37% |
32% |
14% |
17% |
1% |
|
Democrat |
58% |
28% |
7% |
6% |
1% |
|
Republican |
15% |
35% |
21% |
27% |
1% |
|
Independent |
41% |
30% |
9% |
20% |
0% |
Mail Ballots
|
|
Very Confident |
Somewhat Confident |
Not Too Confident |
Not Confident at All |
Not Sure |
|
Overall |
29% |
21% |
13% |
37% |
1% |
|
Democrat |
52% |
27% |
6% |
13% |
1% |
|
Republican |
6% |
14% |
18% |
62% |
0% |
|
Independent |
27% |
22% |
18% |
31% |
2% |
Internet Voting
|
|
Very Confident |
Somewhat Confident |
Not Too Confident |
Not Confident at All |
Not Sure |
|
Overall |
11% |
18% |
14% |
37% |
19% |
|
Democrat |
17% |
28% |
15% |
19% |
21% |
|
Republican |
2% |
9% |
14% |
59% |
17% |
|
Independent |
15% |
17% |
13% |
28% |
26% |
Which of the following do you think is the biggest threat to Pennsylvania having a safe, secure and accurate election in 2022?
|
|
Foreign interference in the election |
Voting machines malfunctioning |
Voter fraud |
The use of mail ballots |
Suppression of individuals from voting |
Other factor |
Not Sure |
|
Overall |
8% |
6% |
24% |
19% |
35% |
5% |
4% |
|
Democrat |
10% |
6% |
10% |
7% |
57% |
7% |
4% |
|
Republican |
6% |
5% |
37% |
31% |
13% |
4% |
4% |
|
Independent |
13% |
4% |
20% |
20% |
37% |
2% |
4% |
For each statement I read tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the statement:
The events at the United States Capitol building on January 6, 2021 were an insurrection against the United States Government.
|
|
Strongly Agree |
Somewhat Agree |
Somewhat Disagree |
Strongly Disagree |
Not Sure |
|
Overall |
39% |
17% |
14% |
25% |
5% |
|
Democrat |
64% |
16% |
9% |
7% |
5% |
|
Republican |
14% |
18% |
20% |
43% |
5% |
|
Independent |
35% |
24% |
13% |
22% |
7% |
Pennsylvania should limit the use of mail ballots in future elections.
|
|
Strongly Agree |
Somewhat Agree |
Somewhat Disagree |
Strongly Disagree |
Not Sure |
|
Overall |
35% |
17% |
16% |
32% |
1% |
|
Democrat |
12% |
11% |
19% |
57% |
1% |
|
Republican |
62% |
21% |
9% |
8% |
1% |
|
Independent |
27% |
27% |
24% |
22% |
0% |
The Pennsylvania State Legislature is attempting to change election rules in the state to make elections in Pennsylvania more secure.
|
|
Strongly Agree |
Somewhat Agree |
Somewhat Disagree |
Strongly Disagree |
Not Sure |
|
Overall |
15% |
36% |
17% |
15% |
16% |
|
Democrat |
12% |
34% |
19% |
18% |
17% |
|
Republican |
19% |
39% |
15% |
15% |
13% |
|
Independent |
11% |
37% |
22% |
9% |
22% |
The Pennsylvania State Legislature wants to change election laws to make it harder for some Pennsylvanians to cast votes.
|
|
Strongly Agree |
Somewhat Agree |
Somewhat Disagree |
Strongly Disagree |
Not Sure |
|
Overall |
18% |
25% |
18% |
22% |
17% |
|
Democrat |
18% |
25% |
18% |
21% |
18% |
|
Republican |
18% |
22% |
18% |
25% |
17% |
|
Independent |
18% |
39% |
14% |
18% |
11% |
The Pennsylvania State Legislature should be able to overturn the results of an election after the results had been certified by state and local election officials.
|
|
Strongly Agree |
Somewhat Agree |
Somewhat Disagree |
Strongly Disagree |
Not Sure |
|
Overall |
11% |
20% |
17% |
46% |
7% |
|
Democrat |
5% |
12% |
16% |
63% |
4% |
|
Republican |
17% |
29% |
18% |
27% |
9% |
|
Independent |
5% |
16% |
16% |
55% |
9% |
Not counting legitimate ballots was more of a problem in 2020 in Pennsylvania than any
election fraud.
|
|
Strongly Agree |
Somewhat Agree |
Somewhat Disagree |
Strongly Disagree |
Not Sure |
|
Overall |
20% |
26% |
17% |
22% |
16% |
|
Democrat |
17% |
29% |
16% |
23% |
15% |
|
Republican |
22% |
24% |
17% |
22% |
16% |
|
Independent |
18% |
34% |
13% |
18% |
17% |
